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Life-Net Raw
January 3, 2003 |
RELIEF GROUPS EXPECT WORST IN BAGHDAD
By Vivienne Walt, USA Today(1/9/2003)--After years of international sanctions, imposed at the end of the 1991 Gulf War, life in the Iraqi capital already is a struggle for most people. Now relief groups here say another war would bring the city to a halt after just one day of bombing.
Relief organizations recently completed a study of the potential impact of a war to determine how to help residents.
Their conclusions:
- Water taps would run dry within 12 hours.
- Food would become scarce.
- Epidemics could erupt if raw sewage spewed into the water supply and residents began drinking from the polluted Tigris River that cuts through the city.
"We're sitting in the center of a volcano that's likely to explode very quickly," says Alexander Christof, an engineer who heads Architects for People in Need, a German aid group working in Baghdad.
Many of the relief groups oppose a war and may want to exaggerate the devastation one would cause. And U.S. military planners would probably try to minimize damage because they want to keep the country intact. U.S. military analysts say any attack would target only the Iraqi military's top command and communications facilities in the hope of toppling of Saddam Hussein's regime.
Bomb damage to the city would only make reconstruction more difficult, Pentagon officials say. They say technological advancements since 1991 would minimize civilian damage.
"Our planners have looked at a number of scenarios, including humanitarian needs," says a Pentagon spokesman, Lt. Col. David Lapan. "If we are going to hit infrastructure targets, there would be a consideration about the civilian impact."
But Christof and other foreign relief officials living in Baghdad say that unseating Saddam would be difficult and that allied forces would end up fighting in the streets of the capital. They might be forced to bomb power plants and bridges.
Unlike Kabul, Afghanistan's chaotic capital, Baghdad is a victim of its own sophistication. Its highways and bridges are perfect military targets. "This isn't Africa or Afghanistan," says Judy Morgan of CARE International. "Everything was built to European-style standards."
How a war could affect life here:
- Water. Baghdad's hundreds of thousands of houses and apartment buildings would be left without water within 12 hours if bombs hit the city's major electric power plants, according to engineers with relief groups. Baghdad sits on a flat plain and relies on electric pumps to force river water up to treatment plants. Purified water is then piped to faucets. "Once the power is cut, you won't get a drop of water," Christof says.
If sewage treatment plants were hit, waste would flow into the water supply, says Roland Huguenin-Benjamin, a spokesman in Baghdad for the International Committee for the Red Cross.- Fuel. Gas stations would probably stop dispensing fuel to civilians, the relief agencies say. The Iraqi military would commandeer the pumps to serve their tanks and vehicles. It is illegal in Iraq for civilians to store fuel at their homes. Fuel shortages also might make it difficult to run backup generators. The generators serve Baghdad during the persistent blackouts caused by the lingering Gulf War damage to power plants. Residents who fail to escape to the countryside will need bicycles or donkeys to get around, Christof says.
- Food. Almost all Iraqi families depend in part on government rations of flour, milk, bread and other basics. The government distributes these once a month. Since September, officials have handed out double rations, which has allowed Iraqis to stockpile food at home in case of war. In a war, the food distributions would be interrupted. Farmers would be unable to get to the city's markets, so there would be little or no fresh produce.
- Communications. Baghdad's already patchy phone service could be knocked out. cell phones have yet to come to Iraq. And only U.N. organizations, embassies and some government officials are permitted satellite phones and walkie-talkies.
Relief organizations are scrambling to prepare for a war here. CARE has ordered 60 water "bladders." Each of these rubber containers holds 1,600 gallons. They can be mounted on trucks and driven to crisis points. The United Nations Children's Fund is importing mobile water-purification plants that can dispense water in war zones. The International Red Cross has in recent weeks handed out thousands of trauma kits to clinics and hospitals.
Relief officials say they're moving large supplies of U.S. dollars to Baghdad. Without cash up front, no truck driver is expected to risk distributing water or transporting food and medicine in a war zone.
CARE's foreign staff has opted to stay if there is a war, says Morgan, who remained in Baghdad through the Gulf War. Many other foreign relief workers plan to leave, however. In their absence, their organizations would be run by locals.
Pentagon officials dispute the dire forecasts. They say the U.S. military is in a much better position to avoid civilian casualties and infrastructure damage than it was in 1991. Then, Baghdad's electricity was knocked out three days after bombing began. Fuel supplies were gone within seven days. Allied warplanes carried out about 890 strikes against electrical power plants and oil installations.
Pentagon officials say precision-guided "smart" bombs would pinpoint military targets without damaging the city's infrastructure. Smart bombs were used for about 10% of strikes in 1991. In a new Iraq war, about 80% of bombs dropped would probably be smart munitions.
The aim of U.S. military action would also be different this time. In 1991, the goal was to force Iraqi troops out of Kuwait; now, it would be to overthrow Saddam's government. Devastating his capital would only cause problems for a U.S.-backed successor government.
Saddam could be as big a danger to the city as U.S. bombs. U.S. intelligence officials said recently that if the Iraqi leader thought he was losing the war, he could destroy power plants, food stocks and oil fields and then blame the humanitarian disaster on the United States.
Aid officials are skeptical that the Pentagon can minimize damage to the city's infrastructure. They also insist that they are not raising alarms in an attempt to mobilize world opinion against a war.
They say several key government buildings are in densely populated areas of central Baghdad, including buildings for the foreign and defense ministries and the main presidential palaces. Those facilities could be targets if a U.S.-led force were to try to knock out the government's top command.
"The Pentagon says we're exaggerating," Christof says. "But war is war, and you don't have a half-war or quarter-war. The U.S. says it will do precision bombing. But the targets are all in civilian areas."
See also the original article with photo and related story links at USA Today.
IN DEFENSE OF LIBERTY?
From ABC News Nightline
A closer look at immigrant detentionsThe post-9/11 dragnet
By Sara Just and the Nightline staff
(1/9/03)--In the post-September 11th effort to catch the terrorists and separate the 'good guys' from the 'bad guys,' it is possible some innocents are being caught up in the dragnet. Here at home, thousands of people from mostly Middle Eastern countries, including those with legal and up to date immigration status, have until tomorrow to register with the INS. Meanwhile, we know next to nothing about the more than 600 men being detained at Guantanamo Bay, Cuba. Their families and loved ones are also in the dark about how long they are being held and when, if ever, they might be released.
Renewing your driver's license is a tedious chore that most of us grind our teeth and suffer through. Here in the nation's capital, it is fair to say that this task can sometimes take a bit longer than it should. The last time I went through the process, I waited in line for nearly 2 1/2 hours. It was an annoyance, but I understood it as a necessary administrative process. Did I wish it had been a better organized process? Yes. But I also understood it was a small price to pay for the convenience and freedom that comes with being a licensed driver.
Even if the thousands of men and women from 13, mostly Middle Eastern countries understand the reason that the INS is requiring them to show up at federal offices for special registration by tomorrow, it can't be a pleasant experience. Most are in this country legally, with up to date immigration paperwork. However, they are from countries considered high risk for terrorist activities, and so special protections are in place.
But appreciating the purpose does not necessarily make the experience any better. Long lines, lengthy delays and even claims of harassment have been reported. Hundreds have been detained for suspected criminal and immigration charges, only to be released days later when no charges were brought. Nightline's Michel Martin will report on the INS registration policy tonight and follow one attorney accompanying a client through the process today.
On the other side of the globe, however, there are people with far less patience and sympathy for the pace of American bureaucracy and justice. More than 600 men are now being held in Guantanamo Bay, Cuba. They are all said to be al Qaeda and Taliban members. But is it possible that one or more were picked up mistakenly, due to false information? We cannot know for sure. Very little is known about who is there and why.
The families and loved ones left behind often know even less. For some, all they know is that one day their brother or son or uncle was gone. They have no almost no way to communicate with them. There is no visitors' center at Guantanamo and no phone calls come in or go out. So the Red Cross has been hand delivering messages from prisoners in Guantanamo to their loved ones around the globe. ABC News' Josh Gerstein followed a team from the Red Cross as it traveled through rural Afghanistan delivering short, handwritten messages. For some, it is the first proof that their loved one is still alive. Not surprisingly, perhaps, many of these family members claim their loved ones do not belong in Guantanamo. The Red Cross, and the media too, are not able to verify their claims.
As you will see tonight, making policy is often not nearly as complicated as enforcing it. We hope you'll join us.
A new outlook: INS detentions lead some who admired U.S. to change opinion
By Reena K. SinghLOS ANGELES (12/24/02)--Shawn Eliaspoor says he will never look at America the same way.
"I thought this was the place of freedom--a place where I could come and become someone. But the last couple of days, my mind has really changed about the United States," said Eliaspoor, who was 6 when his family moved to Southern California from Iran.
Eliaspoor's changed outlook follows his detention by Immigration and Naturalization Service officials in Los Angeles last week. It's an attitude that surprises those who view Eliaspoor as a typical 18-year-old American.
"He's really just a white boy," said sister Shadi Eliaspoor. "He used to play football when he was little and now he likes basketball and video games. He doesn't even know how to speak Farsi."
Shawn Eliaspoor is not alone. Hal Kay, 22, was born in Iran, but is a Canadian citizen who has lived in the United States since age 16. Also held last week by the INS, he also feels betrayed by the government of the country he considers home.
"I really didn't know the INS was this backward. It felt like in America there are situations where it's practically like it is in Iran," Kay said.
Sixteen-year-old Hossein Ahmadi is an Iranian-born British citizen who lives with his mother in Encino, Calif. Ahmadi said he was working on his literature homework while waiting to speak to an immigration official but 30 minutes later he was led away in handcuffs as his 7-month pregnant mother watched.
"They sat me in a tank with three other boys and I was the only INS case," said Ahmadi. "I asked them what they were doing in there. One of them had done a burglary and one of them had stabbed someone. Just being among them, I felt like a criminal."
Feelings of betrayal
Like hundreds of other Middle Eastern males, Eliaspoor, Kay and Ahmadi lined up at a federal building in Los Angeles to register voluntarily for a new INS database to track foreigners who enter and leave the country on tourist, business and student visas. Dec. 16 was the deadline for male visa holders ages 16 and older from Iran, Iraq, Libya, Sudan and Syria.
Those who showed up to register on the deadline day expected to be released within a few hours. Instead, according to INS figures, they were among 400 men arrested. Most of them were born in Iran.
"I thought I was doing something good for myself," said Eliaspoor. "Something for the country. But they tricked me."
The arrests came as a shock to the volunteers. Although many had expired visas, they did not believe that they would be detained because of their pending applications for permanent residency.
"To me anyone who went to register were the good guys," said Ahmadi. "No terrorist is going to come down and say 'I want to register.' It's only the people who follow the law and love this country."
Omar Ricci, chairman of the Muslim Public Affairs Council, believes that the government is sending mixed messages to immigrants.
"The government can't say people who are pending their green card don't need to have their green cards extended then be detained after the fact," Ricci said.
‘Treated us like animals’
Many who were taken into custody are angry over the treatment they received. This resentment comes at a time when Washington is trying to improve its image to Muslims worldwide.
"This government could have well made itself more enemies," said immigration lawyer Ramin Ghashghaei.
Eliaspoor and Kay were in cells with more than 50 other men. They complained of cold air blasting through vents and no blankets. The men also said that they had to sleep on metal benches or on the concrete floor and were given little drink or food.
"There was absolutely no water," said Kay. "Every meal was the same. One poor quality egg, six pieces of broccoli and six pieces of carrots."
"There were people lying on the floor next to toilets," said Eliaspoor. "They treated us like animals, like I wasn't a human being. They put handcuffs on my friend's dad's feet, made him get naked and hosed him down."
The INS has denied any mistreatment of the detainees. Immigration officials also claim that the visa holders were given over a month to register, but instead waited until Monday's deadline. INS officials maintain that the arrests were made because the INS needed more time for background checks.
But Muslim leaders say the government did not publicize the registration enough and that people did not learn of the voluntary registration until the last minute.
Outside the federal building, mothers clutching INS paperwork and the photos of their children cried out in English and Farsi for help. Other family members complained of the lack of information about their loved ones and of the confusion at the INS' seventh floor office.
"It was amazing," said Gissoo Mohajeri, Ahmadi's mother. "I had a lot of problems with the officers in immigration. The information was weak or they didn't want to give it to me. One time they didn't know where my son was."
Call to Washington
The INS flap sparked a series of protests, including a demonstration Sunday in San Diego where 25 Iranian males were detained.
The arrests were also the headlining topic at a convention last weekend in Long Beach where more than 1,000 Muslims gathered to discuss civil rights violations. At the conference, the Muslim Public Affairs Council asked the INS to terminate the registration proceedings and called on Washington to include American Muslims in creating national security policies.
"You can't just take a community here in the United States and scapegoat them," said Ricci. "Bring American Muslims to the table. Let's work hand in hand."
Some immigration lawyers and Muslim leaders believe that the ensuing resentment could have an effect over future registrations. Two more deadlines are pending. On Jan. 10, it is for more than 7,000 men from Afghanistan, Bahrain, Eritrea, Lebanon, Morocco, North Korea, Oman, Qatar, Somalia, Tunisia, United Arab Emirates and Yemen. Males with visas from Pakistan and Saudi Arabia are expected to register by Feb. 21.
Ricci believes that immigrant Muslims will comply with the deadlines. However, some of those who did come forward last week tell a different story.
"Last time I gave my son to jail with my own hands," said Mohajeri. "It is important to me to follow the rules, but if they ask me again, I don't know what I am going to do. I just don't know."
See also the original article with video and a related story link at ABC News Nightline.
CHRISTIANITY ON THE RISE, SOME SAY
By Adam Housely, Fox News
It's mushrooming in the global SouthLOS ANGELES (1/3/2003)--It's a popular notion that Islam is the world's fastest-growing religion, and Christianity is on the decline.
But it's not true, according to information that suggests both faiths are expanding worldwide, with Christianity on the rise in places like South America, Asia and especially Africa.
"It's not a dying religion. Christianity is a vital religion," according to the Rev. Cecil Murray, of the First AME Church of Los Angeles.
Christianity's supporters say news reports on the scandals in the Catholic Church, which recently led to the resignation of Boston's Bernard Cardinal Law, have painted an incomplete picture of the religion. They argue that in many developing countries, the Bible's word is actually booming.
The media has focused too much on problems within the religion, say some.
"They're much more interested in what's wrong with Christianity and not in where it's flourishing, and where it is vital," said Father Thomas Rausch, of Loyola Marymount University. "The third world, the Southern Hemisphere is mostly poor, and it's in these countries where Christianity is mushrooming."
The numbers cited by certain experts seem to support that argument. Christianity was rare at the turn of the century in Africa, but some say almost half of the continent -- as many as 360 million people -- now worships Jesus.
Rev. Murray sees those gains as the successful result of decades of missionary work across the continent. "I think it is strong in Africa because Christians went to Africa in the last 75 to 80 years," he said.
Read the full story at Fox News.
HOW MANY PEOPLE HAVE EVER LIVED ON EARTH?
By Carl Haub, Population Reference Bureau(11/2002)--The question of how many people have ever lived on Earth is a perennial one among information calls to PRB. One reason the question keeps coming up is that somewhere, at some time back in the 1970s, a now-forgotten writer made the statement that 75 percent of the people who had ever been born were alive at that moment.
This factoid has had a long shelf life, even though a bit of reflection would show how unlikely it is. For this "estimate" to be true would mean either that births in the 20th century far, far outnumbered those in the past or that there were an extraordinary number of extremely old people living in the 1970s.
If this estimate were true, it would indeed make an impressive case for the rapid pace of population growth in this century. But if we judge the idea that three-fourths of people who ever lived are alive today to be a ridiculous statement, have demographers come up with a better estimate? What might be a reasonable estimate of the actual percentage?
Any such exercise can be only a highly speculative enterprise, to be undertaken with far less seriousness than most demographic inquiries. Nonetheless, it is a somewhat intriguing idea that can be approached on at least a semi-scientific basis.
And semi-scientific it must be, because there are, of course, absolutely no demographic data available for 99 percent of the span of the human stay on Earth. Still, with some speculation concerning prehistoric populations, we can at least approach a guesstimate of this elusive number.
Prehistory and history
Any estimate of the total number of people who have ever been born will depend basically on two factors: (1) the length of time humans are thought to have been on Earth and (2) the average size of the human population at different periods.
Fixing a time when the human race actually came into existence is not a straightforward matter. Various ancestors of Homo sapiens seem to have appeared at least as early as 700,000 B.C. Hominids walked the Earth as early as several million years ago. According to the United Nations' Determinants and Consequences of Population Trends, modern Homo sapiens may have appeared about 50,000 B.C. This long period of 50,000 years holds the key to the question of how many people have ever been born.
At the dawn of agriculture, about 8000 B.C., the population of the world was somewhere on the order of 5 million. (Very rough figures are given in the table; these are averages of an estimate of ranges given by the United Nations and other sources.) The slow growth of population over the 8,000-year period, from an estimated 5 million to 300 million in 1 A.D., results in a very low growth rate--only 0.0512 percent per year. It is difficult to come up with an average world population size over this period. In all likelihood, human populations in different regions grew or declined in response to famines, the vagaries of animal herds, hostilities, and changing weather and climatic conditions.
In any case, life was short. Life expectancy at birth probably averaged only about 10 years for most of human history. Estimates of average life expectancy in Iron Age France have been put at only 10 or 12 years. Under these conditions, the birth rate would have to be about 80 per 1,000 people just for the species to survive. Today, a high birth rate would be about 45 to 50 per 1,000 population, observed in only a few countries of Africa and in several Middle Eastern states that have young populations.
Our birth rate assumption will greatly affect the estimate of the number of people ever born. Infant mortality in the human race's earliest days is thought to have been very high--perhaps 500 infant deaths per 1,000 births, or even higher. Children were probably an economic liability among hunter-gatherer societies, a fact that is likely to have led to the practice of infanticide. Under these circumstances, a disproportionately large number of births would be required to maintain population growth, and that would raise our estimated number of the "ever born."
By 1 A.D., the world may have held about 300 million people. One estimate of the population of the Roman Empire, from Spain to Asia Minor, in 14 A.D., is 45 million. However, other historians set the figure twice as high, suggesting how imprecise population estimates of early historical periods can be.
By 1650, world population rose to about 500 million, not a large increase over the 1 A.D. estimate. The average annual rate of growth was actually lower from 1 A.D. to 1650 than the rate suggested above for the 8000 B.C. to 1 A.D. period. One reason for this abnormally slow growth was the Black Death. This dreaded scourge was not limited to 14th-century Europe. The epidemic may have begun about 542 A.D. in western Asia, spreading from there. It is believed that half the Byzantine Empire was destroyed in the sixth century, a total of 100 million deaths. Such large fluctuations in population size over long periods greatly compound the difficulty of estimating the number of people who have ever lived.
By 1800, however, world population had passed the 1 billion mark, and it has continued to grow since then to the current 6 billion.
Guesstimates
Guesstimating the number of people ever born, then, requires selecting population sizes for different points from antiquity to the present and applying assumed birth rates to each period (see table on original-article page below). We start at the very, very beginning--with just two people (a minimalist approach!).
One complicating factor is the pattern of population growth. Did it rise to some level and then fluctuate wildly in response to famines and changes in climate? Or did it grow at a constant rate from one point to another? We cannot know the answers to these questions, although paleontologists have produced a variety of theories. For the purposes of this exercise, it was assumed that a constant growth rate applied to each period up to modern times. Birth rates were set at 80 per 1,000 per year through 1 A.D. and at 60 per 1,000 from 2 A.D. to 1750. Rates then declined to the low 30s by the modern period. (For a brief bibliography of sources consulted in the course of this alchemy, see "For More Information.")
This semi-scientific approach yields an estimate of about 106 billion births since the dawn of the human race. Clearly, the period 8000 B.C. to 1 A.D. is key to the magnitude of our number, but, unfortunately, little is known about that era. Some readers may disagree with some aspects--or perhaps nearly all aspects--of the table, but at least it offers one approach to this elusive issue. If we were to make any guess at all, it might be that our method underestimates the number of births to some degree. The assumption of constant population growth in the earlier period may underestimate the average population size at the time. And, of course, pushing the date of humanity's arrival on the planet before 50,000 B.C. would also raise the number, although perhaps not by terribly much.
So, our estimate here is that about 5.8 percent of all people ever born are alive today. That's actually a fairly large percentage when you think about it.
Carl Haub holds the Conrad Taeuber Chair of Population Information at PRB.
See the original article with numerical table at Population Reference Bureau.
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